July 21, 2025 | Peter Long
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June’s U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) Employment Situation Report claimed that 63,000 of June’s 147,000 new jobs came from the education sector — 40,000 in state‑government education agencies and 23,000 in local‑government school systems. At first glance, those numbers suggest a surge in K‑12 employment. But when we compare them with what actually happens in schools every June — and with the workforce data we track daily at MCH Strategic Data — the DOL headline looks more like a statistical mirage than a hiring boom.
How the DOL Counts “Education Jobs”
The DOL’s Establishment Survey records a job when an employee receives pay during the survey week — regardless of whether the position is a new additive job or a replacement for a vacancy. Additionally, June headcounts may be inflated due to:
In short, the survey is excellent for macro trends, but it does not differentiate replacement hires from additive positions, nor does it track vacancies left unfilled.
What We See: Real‑Time K‑12 Staffing Signals
At MCH Strategic Data, we re‑validate 4.5 million+ K‑12 personnel records every month by scraping and comparing rosters across 80,000+ school websites. In June 2025 we validated 4.77 million K‑12 employees — teachers and administrators combined. Our workflow:
June Reality Check
Why June Is the Noisiest Month in K‑12 HR
Timing Factor | Impact on headcount stats |
---|---|
Contract year end (mid May → late June) |
Exiting staff remain on payroll through last check, inflating counts |
Replacement hiring window (July → early Aug) |
Vacancies open but are not yet filled, suppressing true openings |
Budget finalization & grant carryover | Districts freeze new FTEs until allocations are confirmed |
Website migrations & recess updates | Public rosters disappear, masking staff ads/drops |
Outlook for the 2025‑26 School Year
Early signals from budget workshops and board minutes point to cost‑containment, not expansion:
We expect overall headcount to contract modestly by September, even as districts scramble to backfill unavoidable classroom vacancies.
Takeaways for Education Vendors
The Bigger Question
Instead of asking whether there are 63,000 “new” education hires, the real inquiry is: “How many new positions exist that did not exist last year?” Based on our data, that number is going to be smaller — and the net trend seems to be continuing to head further into a declining hiring stance for the Fall of 2025.
Stay Data‑Grounded
National payroll surveys offer valuable macro context, but when you need ground‑truth insight into who is actually working in America’s schools right now, the most reliable signal comes from direct roster validation — exactly what we deliver at MCH Strategic Data.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation—June 2025 (released July 5, 2025); MCH Strategic Data monthly roster validation, June 2025.
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About MCH
For nearly a century, MCH has empowered educational marketers with the data, tools, and solutions needed to thrive. Our cutting-edge technology continuously updates and verifies millions of educator records, ensuring you have the most accurate information for your campaigns.
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