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MCH Strategic Data: Are K-12 Schools Really on a Hiring Binge?

July 21, 2025  |  Peter Long

Are K 12 Schools Really on a Hiring Binge?

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June’s U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) Employment Situation Report claimed that 63,000 of June’s 147,000 new jobs came from the education sector — 40,000 in state‑government education agencies and 23,000 in local‑government school systems. At first glance, those numbers suggest a surge in K‑12 employment. But when we compare them with what actually happens in schools every June — and with the workforce data we track daily at MCH Strategic Data — the DOL headline looks more like a statistical mirage than a hiring boom.

How the DOL Counts “Education Jobs”

The DOL’s Establishment Survey records a job when an employee receives pay during the survey week — regardless of whether the position is a new additive job or a replacement for a vacancy. Additionally, June headcounts may be inflated due to:

  • Summer‑program payrolls come online in June for extended‑school‑year services, credit recovery, and summer enrichment.
  • Seasonal‑adjustment formulas attempt to smooth academic‑calendar swings but can overshoot when districts shift contract calendars.
  • Retroactive contract payouts (e.g., lump‑sum summer checks) can register as “new” even when no additional FTE has been created.

In short, the survey is excellent for macro trends, but it does not differentiate replacement hires from additive positions, nor does it track vacancies left unfilled.

What We See: Real‑Time K‑12 Staffing Signals

At MCH Strategic Data, we re‑validate 4.5 million+ K‑12 personnel records every month by scraping and comparing rosters across 80,000+ school websites. In June 2025 we validated 4.77 million K‑12 employees — teachers and administrators combined. Our workflow:

  1. Snapshot each school’s public staff directory.
  2. Compare against the prior month to identify ⬆️ adds, ⬇️ drops, and ✓ re‑validations.
  3. Timestamp every record so we can track when an educator joins, moves, or exits.

June Reality Check

  • Large churn, small net growth. Thousands of retirements and resignations post announce in May–June, while replacement offers are still pending board approval.
  • Few additive positions. Districts rarely add fresh FTEs until budgets are final and enrollment projections are locked — typically mid‑to‑late July.
  • Rosters still in flux. Websites for ~8 % of schools go dark or migrate to new CMS platforms over the summer, temporarily hiding staff lists.

Why June Is the Noisiest Month in K‑12 HR

Timing Factor Impact on headcount stats
Contract year end
(mid May → late June)
Exiting staff remain on payroll through last check, inflating counts
Replacement hiring window
(July → early Aug)
Vacancies open but are not yet filled,
suppressing true openings
Budget finalization & grant carryover Districts freeze new FTEs until allocations are confirmed
Website migrations & recess updates Public rosters disappear, masking staff ads/drops

 

Outlook for the 2025‑26 School Year

Early signals from budget workshops and board minutes point to cost‑containment, not expansion:

  • ESSER wind‑down is removing a three‑year hiring cushion.
  • State revenue slowdowns are triggering hiring freezes and program consolidations.
  • Federal Re-allocation of funds and budget cuts from Department of Education closure and cuts
  • Teacher retirements and declines in several regions continue to pressure staffing ratios.

We expect overall headcount to contract modestly by September, even as districts scramble to backfill unavoidable classroom vacancies.

Takeaways for Education Vendors

  1. Lead with efficiency. Products that help fewer staff do more (automation, self‑service portals, AI‑powered analytics) will resonate.
  2. Prove instructional impact fast. Districts will fund tools that boost learning outcomes without adding personnel.
  3. Pinpoint high‑need segments. Use granular MCH targeting (role, program, funding eligibility) to prioritize districts still flush with categorical dollars or local levies.
  4. Refresh contact data monthly with our subscription data: Summer movement is high; stale contact lists erode campaign ROI.

The Bigger Question

Instead of asking whether there are 63,000 “new” education hires, the real inquiry is: “How many new positions exist that did not exist last year?” Based on our data, that number is going to be smaller — and the net trend seems to be continuing to head further into a declining hiring stance for the Fall of 2025.

Stay Data‑Grounded

National payroll surveys offer valuable macro context, but when you need ground‑truth insight into who is actually working in America’s schools right now, the most reliable signal comes from direct roster validation — exactly what we deliver at MCH Strategic Data.

 

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation—June 2025 (released July 5, 2025); MCH Strategic Data monthly roster validation, June 2025.

 


 

REWIND - Get the School Calendar 2025/2026

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About MCH

For nearly a century, MCH has empowered educational marketers with the data, tools, and solutions needed to thrive. Our cutting-edge technology continuously updates and verifies millions of educator records, ensuring you have the most accurate information for your campaigns.

 

Use our free ListBuilder tool to explore our education data, or Contact Us to strategize as a team.

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